As I have learned, predicting the crypto market is extremely hard. And even if your prediction is correct in terms of direction, you probably have no idea where the bottom or top really is. Having said that, I also think that proper technical analysis works. Yes, it can't predict the next black swan event. But in normal market conditions, even with news fueled rallies it tends to work nicely. And you should never forget, it's a probability, not a certainty.

I did not write market analysis before, so take everything with a grain of salt. Also not a financial advice. It's just my thoughts on the market, and my hope it can give some people just another prospective. As a thumb rule I will begin my analysis from the long term (more important) to the short term.

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The BTC weekly shows a potential reversal

As you can see, on the weekly we are at the bottom of a falling wedge. It looks for now Bitcoin found support at the $17k to $24k levels. However, do you see that long term channel? Well we breached it, and basically we are in uncharted territory. We have never properly tested this levels, The last time we visited this place was before we broke into the green zone of the channel. The bottom of this channel is at $28k, and we know this level too well, that makes a lot of sense. The last time we tested any of this levels on the weekly was around $32k.

I think it should be pretty obvious that Bitcoin is on the way to test $28k and then $32k. Reaching the $28k is still not a sign of a new bull market. However, I would claim that if we hold the $32k range, This might mean we never actually left, just a long term weak-hands-cleaning. It's also worth to mention, the RSI is at the bottom and above the pink line!

We should take notice at what ETH is doing on the daily

Ethereum is clearly in a broadening formation. This pattern is not bearish, nor it's bullish. It does mean however the volatility goes up, and you can predict the price range. This pattern does tend to respect the ranges. At first glance it might look obvious that since we touched the upper trend, We are about to test the $1,200~ again.

But I urge you to look again, first we have a nice support line at around $1,460. Moreover, there's also a fibonacci retracement in the background. And we are just above the 0.382 line. We are a few days above it already and with nice volume too. It's extremely important for ETH to hold this line, and my prediction is that we are going to $2k at least.

In case you forget: The Goerli test net merge to the Beacon chain will be completed in two phases, starting on August 4 and ending by August 12. I'm placing all my bets that by the 12th Ethereum is above $2k.

On lower timeframes BTC trying to break the $24k resistance

On the 4h timeframe, Bitcoin is just below this important resistance. We really need the break it, but so far, not much volume. It had a nice rally supported by the top weekly MAs, and I think we might go down for a while to the 50 MA line (purple), that's $22,800~. I think that at that time, we'll see the alts go upwards, while BTC gathers strength to break the $24k level with significant volume.

Ethereum struggles to break the $1,750 at the moment

I think we will test $1,650 again, and perhaps even go below it to $1,600. But we can break even lower than that as ETH has had a nice rally up recently. My lowest line, where I think ETH should meet strong resistance is around $1,500, I just don't see it go any lower at the moment.